Over a week has gone by now since we have had any notable snow deposition from either snowfall or wind transport, and almost as many days of well-above average temperatures. Despite barely freezing temperatures at night, clear skies will lead to a solid re-freeze of most slopes, before sun exposure tomorrow starts the melt part of the cycle all over again on E-S-W facing slopes at all elevations, and north facing slopes at lower elevations and up to ~9,700’ where slopes are treed. The only thing different about this early February snowpack warming and the warming that occurs in April is the still-relatively low sun angle in the sky, keeping the intensity of the sun less, and therefore slope warming less. If we had the same temperatures, winds, and cloud cover in April as we do now, we would expect to see quite a bit more loose-wet activity, and the danger of larger and more numerous slides would be greater. Still, isolated loose-wet activity is possible, and this should be kept in consideration especially if riding in areas where a small slide could result in a fall in dangerous terrain. Keep in mind that before these E-S-W facing slopes get exposed to the sun, they are likely to be very firm and icy, and a fall could lead to a slide for life. Crampons and an ice ax would be wise if it is possible that you might be traveling on these slopes before they soften.
Persistent loose sugary snow is still being found mid-snowpack in many areas on NE-N-NW aspects due to the thin snowpack. There have been no reports of any avalanche activity on these layers yet this season, but the weak structure is still important to note, as the possibility, however unlikley, cannot be ruled out. If we ever get a big heavy dump this season, we wouldn't be suprised to see failures in these deeper layers.
Lastly, thin snowpack in many areas are hiding rocks, logs, and other obstacles just below the surface. A skier hit a shallow rock just below the surface that he didn’t see a few days ago skiing out of the negatives, resulting in a fall into other just barely covered rocks, and a broken clavicle.
